If TD6 (Hurricane Florence) remains on a constant northwesterly track it will bull's eye on Buxton, NC. So worriers and swell hopefuls alike, "When would it make landfall?" The simple answer is Wed or Thu (Sept 13th or 14th).

Here are some basic calculations:

The distance between 22N 59W (the forecasted postion 5 days from now) and Buxton, NC, is 1,355 miles, as the crow flies. Initial heading from 22N 59W to Buxton is northwest (316.0 degrees). At an average speed of 12 mph the storm will advance 288 miles each day, and make landfall in Buxton, NC, in five additional days. In other words, the Wed or Thu of GP2K6.

Update time & distance at Google Spreadsheets "Tropical Storm Time to Landfall."

SteveM's GP2K6 forecasts are holding true so far, but with a little help from Florence that just might change. Today's late afternoon buoyweather projections:

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           SURF  SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD   WIND   WND/DIR
          (ft)  (deg)     (ft)   (sec)    (kts)     (deg)
           ---  --------  -----  ------  ------  -------
9/9   8am   1-2  ESE 122    2.6     8.3    6- 8   ENE  65
9/9   2pm   1-2  ESE 123    2.6     8.2    6- 8   ENE  76
9/9   8pm   2-4  ESE 116    3.0    12.6    7-10     E  99

9/10  8am   2-5  ESE 115    3.8    11.1    8-10     E  83
9/10  2pm   2-5  ESE 115    4.0    10.5    7-10   ESE 100
9/10  8pm   2-4  ESE 115    4.0    10.1    7- 9   ESE 123

9/11  8am   2-5  ESE 116    4.1    10.8    7-10    NE  32