Sun, Sept 3, 2006: TD 6 is now official and forecast to become hurricane Florence in a couple of days. The long range buoyweather forecast for the OBX is:

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           SURF SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD   WIND   WND/DIR
           (ft) (deg)     (ft)   (sec)   (kts)     (deg)
           ---- --------  -----  ------  ------  -------
9/9  8am   1-2  ESE 120    2.2     8.3    4-6      N   7
9/9  2pm   2-4  ESE 115    2.8    13.3    4-5    ENE  54
9/9  8pm   2-5  ESE 115    3.6    12.3    4-6      E  92

9/10 2am   3-6  ESE 116    4.3    11.7    1-2    ENE  78
9/10 8am   3-6  ESE 115    4.7    11.2    5-6    NNE  10
9/10 2pm   3-6  ESE 118    4.7    11.1    5-7    ENE  52

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My guess is that these are the beginnings of the Florence swell.

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Sat, Sept 2, 2006. Many are braving the wind and surf of Ernesto along the DelMarVa coast. Meanwhile, a new tropical storm is brewing east of the Lesser Antilles that is promising as a swell generator for GP. She likely would be named Florence. My guess at this point is that Florence won't hit the Outer Banks until early- to mid-GP week.

Pre-GuidoPalooza
Sun, Aug 27, 2006. After a quiet, slow season we now have two storms churning in the Atlantic tropics: Debby and Ernesto. Debby is headed north into the central Atlantic and doesn't figure to produce much if any East Coast swell. Ernesto's long range tracks have him running through the Caribbean Sea, into the Gulf of Mexico and maybe across Florida and into the Atlantic or inland and up the Eastern Seaboard. The long-range forecast show two organized tropical disturbances that *could* produce for the GP (see GP Minus 13 days).

In a Nutshell: We will have a good sized contingent at this year's GP... AS'ers from Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas, Illinois and California (?); and some folks from Balto-DC area. And, a very special guest, the AS Precious Longboard!