It's Now Official: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2007

...Low pressure area off southeastern coast of the United States
develops into subtropical storm Gabrielle...
a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast from Edisto Beach northward to
Oregon Inlet...including the Pamlico Sound.  A tropical storm watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

The Night Before Forecast

Tropical Depression Seven may form today

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:34 AM EDT on September 07, 2007

An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary has grown much better organized over the past six hours, thanks to an decrease in wind shear. Strong upper level winds from the southwest are still creating about 15-20 knots of wind shear over 99L, but satellite loops of 99L show that a more organized circulation has formed, with heavy thunderstorm activity starting to build north of the center. The GFS-based SHIPS model is predicting wind shear will fall to 5 knots on Saturday over 99L, and this should allow the storm to organize into a tropical storm by Saturday. The storm may have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall Sunday night in South Carolina or North Carolina, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model. However, the SHIPS intensity model and the HWRF models are calling for a tropical storm and tropical depression, respectively, at landfall. My best guess is that this will be a 60-65 mph tropical storm at landfall, but there is a very high amount of uncertainty with this forecast. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains and high winds to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday.

The Models the Night Before... finally lot's of similar tracks lining up.

-------------------------------------------------------
SURF SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- -------- ----- ------ --------
9/8 8am 2-5 ESE 109 5.5 8.3 12-16 ENE 77
9/8 2pm 3-6 ESE 113 6.1 8.2 14-19 ENE 71

9/9 8am 3-7 ESE 119 7.9 7.5 16-21 ESE 116
9/9 2pm 2-5 ESE 120 7.0 7.1 13-18 SE 145

9/10 8am 1-3 SSE 157 4.9 6.8 10-14 W 266
9/10 2pm 1-3 S 175 4.0 6.3 7-9 WSW 244

9/11 8am 1-2 SW 216 4.2 5.2 14-19 WSW 249
9/11 2pm 1-2 SW 213 3.5 5.1 12-17 SW 220

9/12 8am 1-2 SSW 207 3.6 5.1 9-13 WSW 242
9/12 2pm 1-2 SSW 205 3.7 5.0 13-18 SW 219

9/13 8am 1-2 SSW 206 3.6 4.8 7-9 WSW 251
9/13 2pm 0-1 SSW 202 3.1 4.7 5-7 SSW 198

9/14 8am 1-2 ESE 106 2.8 8.5 8-11 SSE 158
9/14 2pm 0-1 SSE 168 3.7 4.2 13-17 S 176

Thu Morning Update on Invest 99

All tracks will support surf for early GP days. Some are obviously better than others. The NWS shows two different tracks, the GFDL and something that looks like the LBAR.

clipped from icons.wunderground.com

Wed A.M. Invest 99 Update

This morning's computer models hurricane forecasts for Invest 99 show several different tracks, 2 of 5 which would produce good surf for GP'ers. Two others would produce skim boarding puddles for the new greenster, Blake. Pictured below is the latest North Atlantic Hurricane Coastal Zoom by the NWS [frame grab from Monday, 10 Sept 07). Looks like a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane to me.

Gabrielle On The Way?

Invest 99, soon to be a named tropical storm, probably Gabrielle, is consensus forecast to hit the Hatteras area just in time for opening day of GP2K7 (being weather it is always subject to change). Directly below is the buoyweather table forecast and below it are the modeled storm tracks and at the bottom is a NWS WW3 track for Saturday (wind model). Please monitor this development as it could possibly result in a day's delay into the GP house (depending upon whether Hatteras Island evacuates, floods, or permits new arrivals). Buoyweather is showing VAS on Saturday and a nice clean-up on Sunday with strong offshores.

------------------------------------
SURF SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------- ----- ------ ------- -------
9/6 8am 2-4 E 85 5.9 6.2 14-20 ENE 58
9/6 2pm 2-5 E 85 6.7 7.0 13-18 ENE 61

9/7 8am 4-8 E 94 8.1 8.5 15-21 ENE 71
9/7 2pm 4-8 E 96 8.1 8.3 16-21 ENE 61

9/8 8am 5-10 ESE 109 10.8 8.3 20-27 E 95
9/8 2pm 6-12 SE 130 12.1 8.9 18-25 ESE 105

9/9 8am 6-13 SE 147 12.2 9.2 17-23 SSW 200
9/9 2pm 4-9 SSE 157 9.0 8.7 18-25 WSW 235

9/10 8am 1-2 SSW 199 4.0 5.8 5-7 WNW 294
9/10 2pm 1-2 SSW 192 3.3 5.9 2-3 WNW 306

End of the Week, Beginning of GP Forecast

A little messy at first, but then we'll find some place ridable:

------------------------------------------------
         SURF    SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD   WIND 
         (ft)       (deg)   (ft)   (sec)   (kts)
        -------  --------  -----  ------  ------
9/7  8am  2-4  E    89  5.2  7.2  10-14   E  93
9/7  2pm  2-4  E    87  5.3  7.1  11-15   E  83

9/8  8am  3-7  ESE 123  7.4  8.8  18-24   E  84
9/8  2pm  4-9  ESE 117  9.2  8.1  17-23   E  97

9/9  8am  5-10 SE  136 11.5  7.8  23-31  SE 149
9/9  2pm  5-11 SSE 153 12.2  8.1  22-30   S 177

9/10 2am  3-6  SSW 192  8.2  7.0  21-28 WSW 234
9/10 8am  2-4  SSW 197  5.7  6.5  12-16   W 269

Long Range. The storm east of the Lesser Antilles may produce
by the end of GP if it tracks correctly. Nonetheless, there is
other circulation to the east of Hatteras.