Friday, September 08, 2006

Early Arrivals Waiting for the Surf
Edmund (Ohio) announced his arrival to the Outer Banks this afternoon. He reports nil surf but tons of Russian thin, blond babes. Neal reports that Myroni and Jenn (Tidewater, VA) arrive on Friday as well. Neal is planning a Saturday 3am departure with Annapolis Surf Club members Brian Stringer and Giles Cook (all of MD). Beth and I (MD) will be departing just after the sun begins to rise. Griz and Donna (Texas) will be airborne Saturday morning.
Jeff Cahill (NC) might pull in Saturday night. George of the Bush (formerly of the Jungle of HI, now NC) is expected sometime Saturday. Rick Miale (W. NC) is expected on Sunday. Tom Duncan (Calif) is expected to pull in Sunday evening. CraigK (Chicago) flies in on Monday. Kirk "Weekday" Mantay motors in on Wed nite or Thur morning. We simply don't have a clue about the elusive Steve "the Mind" Marshall. SurfSarge is another mysterious soul that has been quiet on AS of late.


Edmunds Says Locals Expect Swell Late Sunday
It might be sooner than that according to many forecasts. Buoyweather.com calls for a Sunday dawn patrol (maybe out in front of the GP shack).

SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
---- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
9/9 8am 1- 3 ENE 70 4.4 6.2 12-16 NNW 347
9/9 2pm 1- 2 ENE 50 4.2 5.8 10-14 N 355

9/10 8am 3- 6 ESE 116 4.6 11.0 6- 8 NW 314
9/10 2pm 3- 6 ESE 117 4.9 11.7 8-10 NE 30

9/11 8am 4- 8 ESE 117 6.6 11.0 16-21 NE 36
9/11 2pm 3- 6 ENE 50 8.3 6.2 17-23 NE 41

9/12 8am 5-10 ENE 60 10.1 8.5 17-24 NE 38
9/12 2pm 5-11 ENE 64 10.0 9.3 14-19 NE 42

9/13 8am 5-11 ENE 72 9.6 10.3 9-13 ENE 77
9/13 2pm 6-12 ENE 74 9.7 11.0 7-10 ESE 105

9/14 8am 5-10 ENE 73 8.3 10.7 17-24 SE 147
9/14 2pm 5-10 ENE 71 8.4 10.3 19-26 SW 222

9/15 8am 3- 6 ENE 72 5.6 10.2 8-11 NW 313

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Water Temps
Duck Pier - 76 degrees
Avalon Pier - 74
Oregon Inlet - 76
Avon Fishing Pier - 76
Hatteras Island Fishing Pier - 77

Thu, 9/7/06 Evening Update: Swell Forecast Still Strong, but Wed/Thu Estimates Appear Optimistic As Florence Projected to Accelerate North

            SURF  SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD  WIND     WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
---- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
9/9 8am 1- 3 NE 36 5.2 5.3 16-22 N 354
9/9 2pm 1- 3 NE 32 5.1 5.3 15-21 N 0

9/10 8am 3- 6 ESE 116 5.0 11.1 11-15 NNE 19
9/10 2pm 3- 7 ESE 116 5.4 11.3 11-15 NNE 21

9/11 8am 4- 9 ESE 116 7.3 11.0 17-23 NE 33
9/11 2pm 3- 7 ENE 54 9.1 6.8 19-25 NE 31

9/12 8am 5-10 ENE 62 9.9 8.5 16-22 NE 35
9/12 2pm 4- 9 ENE 64 8.9 8.7 10-13 NE 49

9/13 8am 6-12 ENE 79 9.8 10.5 12-16 ESE 113
9/13 2pm 6-12 ENE 75 9.5 10.6 9-13 SE 135

9/14 8am 5-11 ENE 71 8.8 11.0 13-18 SW 212
9/14 2pm 5-10 ENE 71 8.1 10.9 10-13 SW 221


Buoyweather's Ground Truth Forecasts Are Coming Around
bw's forecasts are usually "oversized" before approaching reality... things are certainly shaping up to a more manageable size for these parts. P.S. Hey Griz, our dear friend Foon is already counseling you and I to not charge overhead Avon on a full tank of G&T's and rhum :) Oh! The nerve!!!


             Surf   SurfDir  Swell  Period  Wind     Wnd/Dir
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
---- -------- ----- ------ ----- -------
9/9 8am 1- 3 NE 48 5.7 5.2 18-24 NNE 25
9/9 2pm 1- 3 NE 46 5.9 5.6 17-23 NNE 20

9/10 8am 2- 4 ENE 54 5.7 6.0 14-19 NNE 20
9/10 2pm 4- 8 ESE 117 6.2 11.8 13-17 NE 32

9/11 8am 4- 9 ESE 117 7.6 10.8 15-20 NE 44
9/11 2pm 4- 9 ESE 115 8.0 10.1 15-20 NE 42

9/12 8am 5-10 E 87 9.1 9.2 12-17 ENE 51
9/12 2pm 5-10 E 87 9.0 9.4 12-16 NE 47

9/13 8am 4- 8 ENE 77 8.0 9.3 5- 6 ENE 79
9/13 2pm 4- 8 ENE 75 7.8 9.6 4- 5 ESE 117

9/14 2am 3- 7 ENE 73 6.8 9.5 9 - 13 SSE 163

Thu, 9/7/06 Update: Waves, Waves, Waves... A Good Week to Own a Quicker


            SURF  SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD  WIND     WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
---- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
9/9 8am 1- 2 ENE 68 3.7 5.3 10-14 NNE 15
9/9 2pm 1- 2 ENE 66 3.7 5.3 10-13 NE 31

9/10 8am 3- 6 ESE 117 4.8 11.7 13-17 NNE 19
9/10 2pm 3- 7 ESE 116 5.7 11.6 13-18 NNE 28

9/11 8am 3- 7 ENE 62 9.0 6.9 19-26 NE 43
9/11 2pm 4- 8 ENE 67 9.6 7.5 19-25 NE 39

9/12 8am 6-12 ENE 70 11.0 9.4 18-24 NNE 27
9/12 2pm 6-12 ENE 68 10.7 9.4 16-21 NNE 21

9/13 8am 6-13 ENE 69 10.1 10.9 5- 6 ENE 52
9/13 2pm 6-12 ENE 66 9.2 10.9 4- 6 SSW 200





Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Will there be swell this year? Only Florence knows!

SURF SURF DIR SWELL PERIOD WIND WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
---- -------- ----- ------ ------- -------
9/9 8am 1- 3 NE 32 4.9 5.2 14-19 N 5
9/9 2pm 1- 3 NE 33 4.7 5.4 11-15 NNE 14

9/10 8am 3- 7 ESE 116 5.2 11.7 12-16 NNE 20
9/10 2pm 3- 7 ESE 116 5.6 11.6 12-16 NNE 23

9/11 8am 5-10 ESE 116 8.2 10.9 18-25 NE 45
9/11 2pm 3- 7 ENE 64 9.1 6.8 19-26 NNE 29

9/12 8am 5-11 ENE 63 11.0 8.5 17-24 NE 39
9/12 2pm 6-13 ENE 78 11.0 9.8 17-23 NNE 25

9/13 8am 7-14 ENE 71 10.8 11.1 7- 9 NE 31
9/13 2pm 6-13 ENE 70 10.4 11.1 3- 4 NE 43

1996: Edouard and Fran. Remember their tracks? Check the Storm Tracker and recall swells from 10 yrs ago! And the similarities with the predicted track of Florence.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

GP2K6 long range forecasts for Monday

This evening's swell circles for 9/11/06



The swell periods approaching on 9/10/06


The swell periods approaching on 9/11/06



The wind field of the storm on 9/11/06



Source: WWW3 Wave Model Animations (Atlantic)

Deja Vu!? Looks like we will be surfing familiar territory the first few days of GP with forecasted SE swells and strong N winds, if Florence's continues to develop as shown in the models.
            SURF   SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD WIND   WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
------ -------- ----- ------ ----- -------
9/9 8am 1- 3 NE 49 5.1 5.2 19-27 NNE 28
9/9 2pm 2- 4 NE 48 6.4 5.7 17-23 NE 32

9/10 8am 2- 4 ENE 59 6.7 6.2 15-21 NE 41
9/10 2pm 2- 5 ENE 58 7.0 6.3 14-19 NE 34

9/11 8am 4- 9 ESE 117 7.2 10.8 12-16 NNE 11
9/11 2pm 4- 9 ESE 117 7.4 10.9 15-21 N 3

9/12 2am 4- 9 ESE 116 7.5 10.7 15-21 N 350
9/12 8am 5-10 ESE 112 7.9 10.9 15-21 NNW 344

Monday, September 04, 2006

Long range forecasts for the first day of GP2K6

Late afternoon swell circles for 9/9/06


The swell periods approaching on 9/9/06


The wind field of the storm on 9/9/06

If TD6 (Hurricane Florence) remains on a constant northwesterly track it will bull's eye on Buxton, NC. So worriers and swell hopefuls alike, "When would it make landfall?" The simple answer is Wed or Thu (Sept 13th or 14th).

Here are some basic calculations:

The distance between 22N 59W (the forecasted postion 5 days from now) and Buxton, NC, is 1,355 miles, as the crow flies. Initial heading from 22N 59W to Buxton is northwest (316.0 degrees). At an average speed of 12 mph the storm will advance 288 miles each day, and make landfall in Buxton, NC, in five additional days. In other words, the Wed or Thu of GP2K6.

Update time & distance at Google Spreadsheets "Tropical Storm Time to Landfall."

SteveM's GP2K6 forecasts are holding true so far, but with a little help from Florence that just might change. Today's late afternoon buoyweather projections:

           SURF  SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD   WIND   WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
--- -------- ----- ------ ------ -------
9/9 8am 1-2 ESE 122 2.6 8.3 6- 8 ENE 65
9/9 2pm 1-2 ESE 123 2.6 8.2 6- 8 ENE 76
9/9 8pm 2-4 ESE 116 3.0 12.6 7-10 E 99

9/10 8am 2-5 ESE 115 3.8 11.1 8-10 E 83
9/10 2pm 2-5 ESE 115 4.0 10.5 7-10 ESE 100
9/10 8pm 2-4 ESE 115 4.0 10.1 7- 9 ESE 123

9/11 8am 2-5 ESE 116 4.1 10.8 7-10 NE 32

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Sun, Sept 3, 2006: TD 6 is now official and forecast to become hurricane Florence in a couple of days. The long range buoyweather forecast for the OBX is:
           SURF SURF DIR  SWELL  PERIOD   WIND   WND/DIR
(ft) (deg) (ft) (sec) (kts) (deg)
---- -------- ----- ------ ------ -------
9/9 8am 1-2 ESE 120 2.2 8.3 4-6 N 7
9/9 2pm 2-4 ESE 115 2.8 13.3 4-5 ENE 54
9/9 8pm 2-5 ESE 115 3.6 12.3 4-6 E 92

9/10 2am 3-6 ESE 116 4.3 11.7 1-2 ENE 78
9/10 8am 3-6 ESE 115 4.7 11.2 5-6 NNE 10
9/10 2pm 3-6 ESE 118 4.7 11.1 5-7 ENE 52

My guess is that these are the beginnings of the Florence swell.


Sat, Sept 2, 2006. Many are braving the wind and surf of Ernesto along the DelMarVa coast. Meanwhile, a new tropical storm is brewing east of the Lesser Antilles that is promising as a swell generator for GP. She likely would be named Florence. My guess at this point is that Florence won't hit the Outer Banks until early- to mid-GP week.

Pre-GuidoPalooza
Sun, Aug 27, 2006. After a quiet, slow season we now have two storms churning in the Atlantic tropics: Debby and Ernesto. Debby is headed north into the central Atlantic and doesn't figure to produce much if any East Coast swell. Ernesto's long range tracks have him running through the Caribbean Sea, into the Gulf of Mexico and maybe across Florida and into the Atlantic or inland and up the Eastern Seaboard. The long-range forecast show two organized tropical disturbances that *could* produce for the GP (see GP Minus 13 days).

In a Nutshell: We will have a good sized contingent at this year's GP... AS'ers from Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas, Illinois and California (?); and some folks from Balto-DC area. And, a very special guest, the AS Precious Longboard!